Billings Clinic
Especially For:

Illness & Conditions - Special Health Issues

Interactive Tool: What Is Your Risk for a Stroke if You Have Atrial Fibrillation?

Interactive Tool: What Is Your Risk for a Stroke if You Have Atrial Fibrillation?

What does this tool measure?

Interactive Tool: What Is Your Risk for a Stroke if You Have Atrial Fibrillation?

Click here if you have atrial fibrillation, are age 55 or older, and want to find out your risk of stroke .

This interactive tool measures the chance of having a stroke in the next 5 years, for people who are age 55 or older and have atrial fibrillation . To calculate your score, the tool uses the information you enter.

This tool is based on information from the Framingham Heart Study. Since 1948 the Framingham Heart Study has studied the progression of heart disease and its risk factors. The data from this study has been used to make a risk assessment.

You should be aware, though, that the tool cannot be applied to everyone. This tool does not work for people who:

  • Have mitral valve stenosis or significant left ventricular dysfunction, which interferes with the heart's ability to pump well.
  • Are already taking an anticoagulant such as warfarin (Coumadin). Anticoagulants, also called blood thinners, prevent clots from forming and greatly lower the risk of stroke.
  • Have had a stroke or transient ischemic attack within 30 days of developing atrial fibrillation. If so, you are already at high risk, and this tool will not work for you.

The values you enter include the most important risk factors for stroke. They are:

  • Age and gender. The risk of stroke increases with age. The risk doubles every decade after age 55. Also, among those with atrial fibrillation, women have a higher risk of stroke than men.
  • Systolic blood pressure. Systolic blood pressure is the first number of your blood pressure reading. For example, if your reading is 120/80 (120 over 80), your systolic blood pressure is 120 millimeters of mercury (mm Hg).
  • Diabetes. Having diabetes increases your risk of stroke. You can help lower this risk by working with your doctor to keep your blood sugar levels in a target range.
  • Prior stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA). If you have had a stroke or a transient ischemic attack (TIA) within 30 days of developing atrial fibrillation, you are already at high risk, and this tool will not work for you. But if you had a prior stroke or TIA before you developed atrial fibrillation, this tool will work for you.

Health Tools Health Tools help you make wise health decisions or take action to improve your health.

Health Tools help you make wise health decisions or take action to improve your health.


Interactive tools help people determine health risks, ideal weight, target heart rate, and more. Interactive tools are designed to help people determine health risks, ideal weight, target heart rate, and more.
  Stroke Risk From Atrial Fibrillation

What does your score mean?

Your score will appear in as a value from 1% to 99%. If your score is 5%, it means that 5 out of 100 people with this level of risk will have a stroke in the next 5 years. If your score is 10%, it means that 10 out of 100 people with this level of risk will have a stroke in the next 5 years.

These percentages are one way your doctor can decide if an anticoagulant (blood thinner), such as warfarin, is the right medicine to help lower your risk of stroke. Talk with your doctor about the best way to lower your risk of stroke.

If you are above a 10% risk, talk to your doctor about taking an anticoagulant. You will want to weigh the benefits of reducing your risk of stroke against the risks of taking an anticoagulant. These medicines work well to prevent stroke. But they also increase the risk of bleeding. Your doctor may also check your risk of bleeding from an anticoagulant to see if it's right for you.

If you are at a 10% risk or lower, you may get enough protection from stroke by taking aspirin. Aspirin may be a good choice if you are young and have no other heart or health problems or if you can't take an anticoagulant safely. Aspirin doesn't work as well as an anticoagulant to reduce your stroke risk. But aspirin is less likely to cause bleeding problems.

Other antiplatelet medicines, such as clopidogrel (Plavix), may be used. Your doctor may have you take them with aspirin or instead of aspirin. When aspirin and clopidogrel are used together, they may reduce the risk for stroke more than aspirin alone. But this combination is also more likely to cause bleeding than aspirin alone.

What's next?

Talk to your doctor about how to lower your risk of stroke if you have atrial fibrillation.

For help deciding if taking an anticoagulant is right for you, see:

Click here to view a Decision Point. Atrial Fibrillation: Should I Take an Anticoagulant to Prevent Stroke?

For help deciding which anticoagulant to take, see:

Click here to view a Decision Point. Atrial Fibrillation: Which Anticoagulant Should I Take to Prevent Stroke?

For more information, see the topic Atrial Fibrillation.

This tool was derived from Wang TJ, et al. (2003). A risk score for predicting stroke or death in individuals with new-onset atrial fibrillation in the community: The Framingham heart study. JAMA, 290(8): 1049–1056. The Framingham Heart Study is a project of the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, a part of the National Institutes of Health and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and Boston University. More information is available online at www.framinghamheartstudy.org.

References

Other Works Consulted

  • Fuster V, et al. (2011). 2011 ACCF/AHA/HRS focused update incorporated into the ACC/AHA/ESC 2006 guidelines for the management of patients with atrial fibrillation: A report of the American College of Cardiology Foundation/American Heart Association Task Force on Practice Guidelines. Circulation, 123(10): e269–e367.
  • Wang TJ, et al. (2003). A risk score for predicting stroke or death in individuals with new-onset atrial fibrillation in the community: The Framingham heart study. JAMA, 290(8): 1049–1056.

Credits

By Healthwise Staff
Primary Medical Reviewer Rakesh K. Pai, MD, FACC - Cardiology, Electrophysiology
Specialist Medical Reviewer John M. Miller, MD, FACC - Cardiology, Electrophysiology
Last Revised November 27, 2012

This information does not replace the advice of a doctor. Healthwise, Incorporated disclaims any warranty or liability for your use of this information. Your use of this information means that you agree to the Terms of Use. How this information was developed to help you make better health decisions.

© 1995-2013 Healthwise, Incorporated. Healthwise, Healthwise for every health decision, and the Healthwise logo are trademarks of Healthwise, Incorporated.

Print This Page
Email to a Friend
Home | Contact | Site Map | Site Privacy Policy | Terms & Conditions | Patient Privacy Policy | Medical Records | Fast Command
2800 10th Ave. North | P.O. Box 37000 | Billings, Montana 59107 | 406.238.2500
© Copyright 2014 Billings Clinic. All Rights Reserved.